The stage is set for COP30 in Belem, Brazil, where negotiators from around the world have gathered in the Amazonian city for what many are calling an "Adaptation COP." Bangladesh, along with other climate-vulnerable nations, is attending yet another climate summit carrying both a heavy burden and guarded hope.

Weighed down by a growing per capita climate debt, an uncertain climate finance landscape, and increasingly erratic climatic shifts affecting millions of lives, Bangladesh looks to COP30 with cautious optimism – hoping that the developed world will finally heed reason and deliver the funds truly needed for adaptation, mitigation, and climate-induced loss and damage.

For Bangladesh and other climate-vulnerable Least Developed Countries (LDCs), the stakes at COP30 go far beyond technical negotiations. Dhaka's delegation, working alongside the G77 and China, will press for a doubling of adaptation finance, greater access to grants, and tangible progress on the long-promised Loss and Damage (L&D) Fund.

But with global climate finance still mired in murky reporting and mislabelled investments and what many describe as misclassified "green" investments, Bangladesh and other climate-vulnerable LDCs face an uphill struggle to secure fair, transparent, and debt-free support.

"Right now, if we look at Bangladesh's average per capita climate debt, it stands at around $80. This may not sound alarming at first, but before 2008-09, our climate debt was almost zero," said Zakir Hossain Khan, executive director of Change Initiative.

The growing climate debt threatens both Bangladesh's fiscal stability and its capacity to adapt to a rapidly warming world. This debt is separate from the country's general development loans, yet it adds an additional financial burden – forcing the nation to pay "about 1.5 times more in debt servicing than what we spend on development itself" largely due to bilateral loans.

Zakir highlighted a striking mismatch in the allocation of climate finance.

"About 55% of these funds are going into the energy sector, whereas only 13% is directed towards environmental protection and a mere 2% towards disaster preparedness," he said.

A significant portion of what is reported as climate finance is in fact misclassified – with investments in coal or gas projects often counted as "climate-friendly," inflating the figures while leaving vulnerable communities underfunded.

The persistent gaps in transparency and reporting are evident in the fact that, as of September 30, only 61 countries have submitted their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), covering about 31% of global emissions – while major emitters have yet to update theirs.

Zakir pointed out that Bangladesh has received only around 1% of its required adaptation finance and 2.35% mitigation fund from foreign sources under its second NDC (NDC-2). This trend, he said, reflects how international climate finance remains heavily skewed towards loans rather than grants, forcing countries like Bangladesh into mounting climate-related debt.

Despite contributing just 0.3% of global emissions, Bangladesh experiences some of the world's most severe climate impacts, losing $3 billion every year to disaster-related damages. 

"Meeting adaptation needs alone requires an estimated $8.5 billion annually, while current climate spending is only around $1.2 billion. Similarly, the broader transition to a green economy is estimated to require at least $12 billion per year. This leaves a multi-billion-dollar financing gap – a structural injustice that disproportionately burdens those who have contributed least to the crisis," said Farah Kabir, country director of ActionAid Bangladesh. 

Deputy Secretary Shah Abdul Saadi of the Economic Relations Department echoed these concerns. He explained that the broader problem affects many LDCs, where loans are increasingly replacing grants in the global climate finance architecture, leaving countries like Bangladesh trapped in a cycle of debt while urgent adaptation needs remain unmet.

"The adaptation finance should be doubled," Saadi said. "But currently, mitigation accounts for more than 75% of total climate finance. Without a shift towards grants and concessional support, LDCs will struggle to manage both climate impacts and the debt burden that comes with addressing them."

Bangladesh joins Belem with negotiators at a summit that could redefine the global approach to climate adaptation.

If COP30 agrees on a 50-50 split between adaptation and mitigation finance, that would be a positive step," he said.

Farah Kabir, however, warned adaptation will have to go hand in hand with mitigation – although Bangladesh must prioritise adaptation because we live with climate impacts daily. 

"However, adaptation alone cannot secure our future. Without strong global mitigation, the scale of climate impacts will soon exceed any capacity to adapt," she added. 

Meanwhile, the L&D fund is expected to dominate discussions.

The L&D fund, though historic, remains largely symbolic. By mid-2025, pledges reached just $788.8 million – less than 0.2% of the $400 billion needed annually. Farah Kabir says this shortfall shows weak global commitment and disregard for climate justice principles.

Bangladesh so far has not yet received a single dollar from this fund, despite spending billions each year on disaster preparedness from its own resources.

There's little optimism about a significant increase to the current $788 million in the Loss and Damage Fund. "It may cross $1 billion," Zakir said. However, the experts stressed that the fund must ensure direct country access and be designed to respond to real-time needs through "integrated, location-specific funding" that reaches communities directly. Otherwise, they warned, it risks turning into an insurance-style mechanism that fails to benefit those most affected.

Meanwhile at the Leaders' Summit in Belem last week, countries endorsed the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) with more than $5.5 billion pledged, including $3 billion from Norway and $1 billion each from Brazil and Indonesia. 

Loan vs grant is another discussion which will once be fiercely debated in this COP.  

"For every dollar of grants, Bangladesh is taking on about $2.7 in loans," Zakir noted, adding that this imbalance "is far worse than the LDC average of 70 cents in loans per dollar of grants."

COP30 President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, framing the summit as the "COP of adaptation," emphasised that climate adaptation is no longer secondary to mitigation but constitutes "the first half of our survival."

According to the Global Center on Adaptation, it could be the world's first true "Adaptation COP," as industrial-scale adaptation finance remains severely underprovided.

The key agendas at this COP include the Global Goal on Adaptation, measurable adaptation indicators, submission of updated NDCs, the new TFFF, the Loss and Damage Fund, and discussions on nature-based solutions, among others. 

"Without adaptation, climate change becomes a multiplier of poverty, destroying livelihoods, displacing workers, and deepening hunger," said COP30 President André Aranha, underlining the urgent stakes for vulnerable nations.

Despite repeated commitments, he noted that "adaptation finance still represents less than one third of total climate finance, far below needs," and called for scaling it "beyond doubling, potentially tripling… Grants and concessional loans remain essential for all countries, especially those with limited fiscal space."

This story was produced as part of the 2025 Climate Change Media Partnership, a journalism fellowship organised by Internews' Earth Journalism Network and the Stanley Center for Peace and Security.

COP30 / Brazil